Rep. Tom Reynolds’ retirement announcement seems likely to set the stage for another competitive State Senate race this fall.

Officially, State Sen. George Maziarz (R-Niagara)—long thought to covet Reynolds’ seat—has told Republican leaders that he will confer with his wife, Beverly, and close advisors over the weekend. But several sources said that Maziarz will announce his candidacy on Monday.

Maziarz did not return calls for comment.

Rumors of Reynolds’ retirement have been circulating since November, when a story in The Capitol (http://www.nycapitolnews.com/news/125/ARTICLE/1110/2007-11-13.html) set off a wave of denials from the congressman’s office.

If he runs, the seven-term senator’s decision to try for Congress might move his Senate seat from safe for the GOP to a toss-up, with a battle looming between Niagara County Republican Chairman Henry Wojtaszek and Lewiston Town Supervisor Fred Newlin (D). Sources familiar with Wojtaszek’s thinking said the GOP leader has made the decision to run, while those close to Newlin said he is about to make a final decision.

Wojtaszek, long thought to be Maziarz’s preferred successor, has been working to solidify the GOP behind him. He has already met with Lockport Mayor Michael Tucker and will be meeting with Wheatfield Town Supervisor Tim Demler on Friday, soliciting support for his candidacy from both additional potential Senate candidates.

Tucker, who has been mentioned as a potential challenger to embattled Assembly Member Mike Cole (R-Erie), said he would not comment on a still non-existent Senate race. Tucker is expected to back Wojtaszek.

Demler, an ultra ambitious local politician who has long opposed Wojtaszek and Maziarz in the county GOP, has been looking for a route out of town hall for years. He unsuccessfully challenged Assembly Member Francine Delmonte (D-Niagara) in 2002 and sought the GOP nomination for lieutenant governor in 2006. 
Wojtaszek said he would not have a comment on his potential Senate candidacy until after Maziarz made an announcement regarding the congressional seat.

Demler did not return messages for comment in the hours after Reynolds’ announcement, but in November told The Capitol that there was a 70 to 80 percent chance that he would make the race for Senate if Maziarz was not running for re-election.
On the Democratic side, Newlin said he has received encouragement from many in Lewiston to consider a race for higher office and will be meeting with advisors over the next week to discuss the Senate contest, though he cited his three wins for town supervisor in the swing town of Lewiston as part of his reasoning for making the race.

“A lot of people in Lewiston and Niagara County have asked me to consider it and I will think about it,” he said.
While a longtime favorite of Niagara County Democratic Chairman Dan Rivera, Newlin could still face primary competition for the seat. But several potentially major contenders appear likely to skip the race: Delmonte, who did not return a call for comment, is believed to not want to risk her Assembly seat and Niagara County Legislator Kyle Andrews of Wilson, who was mentioned last fall as a potential Senate candidate, indicated that he has not given consideration to the race.

While the district is considered Republican, Western New York politicos are not anything for granted after Darrel Aubertine’s Feb. 26 victory in the North Country State Senate special election. In addition, Democrats are expected to make a major play to defeat Wojtaszek, who has been aggressive in his role as party chairman in keeping the county government under Republican control.

While nominal party affiliation would give Democrats a narrow majority in the county legislature, Wojtaszek has persuaded several Democrats to run on the GOP line and caucus with the GOP in the legislature, giving Republicans a sizable majority.

Newlin was first elected town supervisor in 2003 in the swing town of Lewiston. He has been re-elected twice, in campaigns where he was a top Wojtaszek target.

Though Maziarz Is Likely First Choice and Hayes Likely Back-Up, Burling Tosses His Name In

Meanwhile, State Sen. George Maziarz is crystallizing his support as the Republican frontrunner for Rep. Tom Reynolds’ seat—not only does most of his Senate district overlap with the congressional seat, but he is considered to be a strong retail politician.

“I’d be shocked if it didn’t happen,” said one Niagara County Republican leader who asked to not be identified. “This is George’s chance.”

The back-up frontrunner for the seat is considered to be Assembly Member Jim Hayes (R-Erie), though Hayes recently declined a run to succeed retiring State Sen. Mary Lou Rath (R-Erie), which he was expected to make. Hayes indicated at the time that he wanted to focus on his role as the top Republican on the Assembly Ways and Means Committee.

But there are other potential House candidates as well: Assembly Member Dan Burling (R-Genesee) started telling colleagues in Albany on Wednesday night that he was exploring a race for the seat, and has begun calling party chairs in the district.

In an interview, Burling pointed out that his Assembly district overlaps the rural heavily Republican areas of the Congressional district, as well as his background as a Vietnam War veteran and small business owner—he has long run a pharmacy in Corfu. In the wake of former Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s (D) prostitution scandal and the revelations by Gov. David Paterson (D) of his extramarital affairs, Burling is also playing up the idea of himself as the family values candidate stressing his marriage of 40 years, his children and his grandchildren.

Burling’s location might be his downfall. With the seat long under the control of Erie County Republicans—Reps. Bill Paxon and Jack Kemp preceded Reynolds—a Niagara County Republican like Maziarz would be enough of a change. But to many Erie Republicans, having the seat go to a rural Republican like Burling would be out of the question.

Burling stressed the differences between the career politician Maziarz and himself.

“George would be a good candidate,” Burling said. “But he does not have the small business experience and the military experience I have.”

But though he expects to make a final decision in the next week, Burling said that he would not wage a primary against Maziarz.

“If George becomes a candidate, he has my support,” he said.

That could leave the Republicans without a primary in the race, with whichever candidate emerges facing the winner of an expected three-way Democratic primary between Iraq War veteran Jon Powers, attorney Alice Kryzan and millionaire industrialist Jack Davis, who almost unseated Reynolds two years ago. Even before Reynolds’ announcement, Powers had been getting much of the support and attention from Democrats outside the district hoping to score a pick-up of the seat in November.