Despite Political Atmosphere, Even Modest Gain Remains Big Push For Assembly GOP
The long-suffering minority conference struggles through another difficult election year
Wed, 30 Jun 2010 13:59:00
When Assembly Minority Leader Brian Kolb took over from Jim Tedisco over a year ago, he said his goal was to run competitively in all 102 districts held by Democrats. And if he was ever going to pull it off, this would be the year to do it.
Voter anger at incumbents is at an all-time high, especially toward Democrats, who control all three braches of government. Republicans made significant gains last year in key swing counties like Westchester and Nassau. And the Assembly minority won three out of four February special elections, two of them flipping seats that were previously held by Democrats.
Conditions are just right for a strong Republican showing in the Assembly this year. Even Republican State Chair Ed Cox seems to think so, when he alleged on air that Speaker Sheldon Silver was anticipating losing as many as 25 seats in November.
So naturally, as election season begins to heat up, the Assembly Republicans are seeking to tamp down expectations, knowing that if they cannot hit that mark, their minority status will likely be permanent.
“If we get to 52, 53 or higher, that’s going to be great,” Kolb said of his current 42-member conference.
Nine seats would break the Democrats’ veto-proof majority and, perhaps more importantly, send the message that Shelly Silver can be bloodied. But in addition to the nine seats they hope to pick up, the Republicans will have nine open seats to defend.
And not all are in safe Republican districts.
“Talk about a wrench in the works,” Kolb said. “That’s what’s frustrating, is those are things you can’t control.”
Tedisco sought to lower expectations into the basement, saying the best-case scenario is to make it through this election with the conference intact.
“It would be a great year for us if we could come back with all 42 seats, or even win one or two seats,” Tedisco said. “That would be a tremendous victory for us, with almost 10 open seats.”
Still, Republican strategists are zeroing in on a number of Democrats they consider particularly vulnerable this year. Janelle Hyer-Spencer, whose district spans Brooklyn and Staten Island, has been in the Republican crosshairs since coming into office in 2006. But for all of their agitating and occasional press releases naming Hyer-Spencer a top target, the GOP failed to recruit a heavy hitter for the race. Scattered efforts to avoid a primary between the Republicans vying for the nomination to take on local Rep. Mike McMahon by getting one of the two GOP candidates to switch to the Assembly failed, and the nomination instead went to Nicole Malliotakis, who served as a Brooklyn-Staten Island liaison for former Gov. George Pataki.
Other Democratic targets include William Magee from Madison and Otsego counties, Kevin Cahill from Ulster County, Joan Christenson from Syracuse, Marc Alessi from the eastern tip of Suffolk County, and the seat being vacated by Ann-Margaret Carrozza in Queens.
Candidates have been identified in most of the targeted districts, but not all. Campaign officials are waiting until after the petitioning process ends to begin endorsing and doling out what little campaign cash there is. A similar strategy is being employed by the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, who are seeking self-funded candidates to make up for a dearth of campaign cash.
Assembly Member Bob Oaks noted that he and Assembly Member Will Barclay, as co-chairs of the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee, are more concentrated on fundraising than candidate recruitment. Whether a candidate can raise money independently will be a determining factor in whether that race will be in play, Oaks said. And with most top-dollar donors having decided long ago to throw in with Silver and the Democrats, many obstacles remain for Assembly Republicans this year, according to Oaks.
In their 11-day post-February special election campaign filings, the Assembly Republicans reported having a little less than $400,000 in their coffers, with an additional $45,000 in their housekeeping account. Meanwhile, Assembly Democrats have over
$2.3 million in their main account, and $380,000 in their housekeeping.
Oaks sees a silver lining that dovetails conveniently with Republican philosophy.
“When you have less, you become more fiscally responsible,” he said.
Still, persuading potential candidates to run for spots in what is likely to be a permanent minority is no easy sell. Several candidates spoke of being more intrigued by the idea of developing a qualified farm team for other races, like State Senate and Congress, than challenging Silver’s control of the Assembly. Others said they hoped that cracking the veto-proof majority would allow them to partner with conservative upstate Democrats to help push a more fiscally responsible agenda.
“I’ve got a family, a kid, a mortgage,” said one Republican candidate. “Candidly, I’ve got better things to do with my time. But it’s self-evident that one-party rule is not working that well.”
Many have praised Kolb for his straight-talking performance during recent leadership meetings. But a few Republicans said they preferred Tedisco’s headline-grabbing, bulldog tactics, or even former Minority Leader Tom Reynolds’s cigar-chomping, old-school savvy. Reynolds presided over a 54-member conference, the largest since the Republicans lost the Assembly majority in the post-Watergate 1974 elections.
Kolb brushed aside such concerns, saying he is concentrated on leveraging the favorable political conditions to his conference’s benefit—a task he acknowledges can seem insurmountable when looking
just at the voter rolls and fundraising numbers.
But in the year of Tea Parties and “throw the bums out” sentiments, no one is more underdog than the Assembly Republicans.
“I feel like we’re the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, playing against the New York Yankees, in terms of their payroll,” Kolb said. “And I’m a die-hard Yankees fan, so I even hate to use that analogy!”
--
ABOVE: As much as larger political conditions might seem to favor Brian Kolb’s scrappy, determined 42-member conference, November once again looks like it will prove insurmountable for the Assembly Republicans. Illustration by Marc Anderson
Voter anger at incumbents is at an all-time high, especially toward Democrats, who control all three braches of government. Republicans made significant gains last year in key swing counties like Westchester and Nassau. And the Assembly minority won three out of four February special elections, two of them flipping seats that were previously held by Democrats.
Conditions are just right for a strong Republican showing in the Assembly this year. Even Republican State Chair Ed Cox seems to think so, when he alleged on air that Speaker Sheldon Silver was anticipating losing as many as 25 seats in November.
So naturally, as election season begins to heat up, the Assembly Republicans are seeking to tamp down expectations, knowing that if they cannot hit that mark, their minority status will likely be permanent. “If we get to 52, 53 or higher, that’s going to be great,” Kolb said of his current 42-member conference.
Nine seats would break the Democrats’ veto-proof majority and, perhaps more importantly, send the message that Shelly Silver can be bloodied. But in addition to the nine seats they hope to pick up, the Republicans will have nine open seats to defend.
And not all are in safe Republican districts.
“Talk about a wrench in the works,” Kolb said. “That’s what’s frustrating, is those are things you can’t control.”
Tedisco sought to lower expectations into the basement, saying the best-case scenario is to make it through this election with the conference intact.
“It would be a great year for us if we could come back with all 42 seats, or even win one or two seats,” Tedisco said. “That would be a tremendous victory for us, with almost 10 open seats.”
Still, Republican strategists are zeroing in on a number of Democrats they consider particularly vulnerable this year. Janelle Hyer-Spencer, whose district spans Brooklyn and Staten Island, has been in the Republican crosshairs since coming into office in 2006. But for all of their agitating and occasional press releases naming Hyer-Spencer a top target, the GOP failed to recruit a heavy hitter for the race. Scattered efforts to avoid a primary between the Republicans vying for the nomination to take on local Rep. Mike McMahon by getting one of the two GOP candidates to switch to the Assembly failed, and the nomination instead went to Nicole Malliotakis, who served as a Brooklyn-Staten Island liaison for former Gov. George Pataki.
Other Democratic targets include William Magee from Madison and Otsego counties, Kevin Cahill from Ulster County, Joan Christenson from Syracuse, Marc Alessi from the eastern tip of Suffolk County, and the seat being vacated by Ann-Margaret Carrozza in Queens.
Candidates have been identified in most of the targeted districts, but not all. Campaign officials are waiting until after the petitioning process ends to begin endorsing and doling out what little campaign cash there is. A similar strategy is being employed by the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, who are seeking self-funded candidates to make up for a dearth of campaign cash.
Assembly Member Bob Oaks noted that he and Assembly Member Will Barclay, as co-chairs of the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee, are more concentrated on fundraising than candidate recruitment. Whether a candidate can raise money independently will be a determining factor in whether that race will be in play, Oaks said. And with most top-dollar donors having decided long ago to throw in with Silver and the Democrats, many obstacles remain for Assembly Republicans this year, according to Oaks.
In their 11-day post-February special election campaign filings, the Assembly Republicans reported having a little less than $400,000 in their coffers, with an additional $45,000 in their housekeeping account. Meanwhile, Assembly Democrats have over
$2.3 million in their main account, and $380,000 in their housekeeping.
Oaks sees a silver lining that dovetails conveniently with Republican philosophy.
“When you have less, you become more fiscally responsible,” he said.
Still, persuading potential candidates to run for spots in what is likely to be a permanent minority is no easy sell. Several candidates spoke of being more intrigued by the idea of developing a qualified farm team for other races, like State Senate and Congress, than challenging Silver’s control of the Assembly. Others said they hoped that cracking the veto-proof majority would allow them to partner with conservative upstate Democrats to help push a more fiscally responsible agenda.
“I’ve got a family, a kid, a mortgage,” said one Republican candidate. “Candidly, I’ve got better things to do with my time. But it’s self-evident that one-party rule is not working that well.”
Many have praised Kolb for his straight-talking performance during recent leadership meetings. But a few Republicans said they preferred Tedisco’s headline-grabbing, bulldog tactics, or even former Minority Leader Tom Reynolds’s cigar-chomping, old-school savvy. Reynolds presided over a 54-member conference, the largest since the Republicans lost the Assembly majority in the post-Watergate 1974 elections.
Kolb brushed aside such concerns, saying he is concentrated on leveraging the favorable political conditions to his conference’s benefit—a task he acknowledges can seem insurmountable when looking
just at the voter rolls and fundraising numbers.
But in the year of Tea Parties and “throw the bums out” sentiments, no one is more underdog than the Assembly Republicans.
“I feel like we’re the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, playing against the New York Yankees, in terms of their payroll,” Kolb said. “And I’m a die-hard Yankees fan, so I even hate to use that analogy!”
--
ABOVE: As much as larger political conditions might seem to favor Brian Kolb’s scrappy, determined 42-member conference, November once again looks like it will prove insurmountable for the Assembly Republicans. Illustration by Marc Anderson
