The Spitzer Legacy: Now Who Would Get the Senate Seat?

Despite Clinton’s declining chances, new potential list reflects changing political calculus under Paterson

John Celock

Mon, 14 Apr 2008 16:41:00

Eliot Spitzer’s resignation upturned the conventional wisdom that had David Paterson as Spitzer’s all-but-certain appointee to replace Sen. Hillary Clinton (D), should she be elected president. Even as Clinton’s path to the Democratic nomination appears increasingly difficult, the question of who Paterson might pick if Clinton does get to the White House has begun to circulate.

Most believe that Paterson would be unlikely to appoint himself, though he could. While several other governors across the country have tried this, they have generally not fared well with voters in their next elections, instead finding their political careers cut short.

Sources dismissed any speculation regarding Paterson’s potential Senate appointment. One source close to the governor’s office said that Paterson was still focused on the continuing transition and has not thought ahead to the potential impact of the presidential race for him. Others said there had not been much attention given to the prospect, considering what appear to be Clinton’s diminishing chances against Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's for the Democratic nomination.

“It’s ridiculous to speculate, because Hillary will be occupying Hillary’s Senate seat in January,” said one consultant.

Day 1-Day 442: The Spitzer Legacy

Full coverage on NYCapitolNews.com...

• Spitzer's Wake
• Now Who Would Get the Senate Seat?
• Silda Wall Spitzer’s Effects and Michelle Paige Paterson’s Prospects
• Questions Swirl Over Which Firms Stand on Solid Ground
• In Alabama, a Lieutenant Governor who Became Governor, then Lieutenant Governor Again
• The Next Step for the Career Cut Short
• Once Governor, Always Governor
• Signs of Change
• Bond Issues

But the new potential list may nonetheless demonstrate a new organization of power and political calculus. People who were thought to be behind Paterson on Spitzer’s presumptive list are still being discussed. This includes Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown and Reps. Carolyn Maloney (D-Manhattan/Queens), Jerrold Nadler (D-Manhattan/Brooklyn), Gregory Meeks (D-Queens) and Nita Lowey (D-Westchester/Rockland).

But especially with Paterson’s appointee forced to run for the remaining two years of the term in 2010 on a ticket with Paterson, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) and the other constitutional officers, ticket balancing concerns may well weigh heavily on Paterson’s mind if faced with making a choice.

With or without a Senate seat to fill, the new thinking reflects the political reality now that Paterson is in the Executive Mansion. State Democrats may be looking for more upstate candidates, but with less emphasis on putting forward a non-white candidate. But protecting the new governor will likely still be key.

Cuomo is believed to be a top choice, to get a potential primary rival out of the way. This would be similar to a strategy employed by Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) in 2006, who helped engineer the Senate nomination for State Treasurer Robert Casey, Jr., his former primary opponent.

Suozzi is believed to be the best choice to balance the 2010 ticket as a suburban candidate, in a time when suburban voters are dominating statewide politics. The next statewide Democratic ticket is guaranteed only one suburban politician—State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli.

“The advice with Suozzi is he’s a suburbanite, and that’s more important than an upstater,” said one Democratic consultant.

A Suozzi selection would still keep the focus downstate, though. The leading upstate choice had been Brown, a former state senator who has been close to Paterson for years. Brown, Buffalo’s first African-American mayor, has seen his chances decline since Paterson’s elevation, since the push for an African-American senator will likely be less intense under New York’s first African-American governor.

That may pave the way for rising prospects for Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) as an upstate candidate. A Higgins appointment would open his House seat for a 2009 special election, which would draw competition from both parties. While Higgins is viewed as a heavy favorite to hold the seat when he runs, his longtime predecessor was Republican Jack Quinn, and Republicans have proven competitive in much of the district.

Whoever Paterson picks could face a tough future in the Senate. Of the 16 appointed senators to serve between 1986 and 2006, 13 have sought election and only 7 have won, the most recent being Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ). The current Senate contains two appointees, Republicans John Barrasso of Wyoming and Robert Wicker of Mississippi. Both are seeking election for the remainder of their appointed terms in November, and are considered favored by national political handicappers.