The race to succeed Rep. Michael McNulty (D-Albany) is getting more and more crowded—already, there are seven Democrats and two Republicans vying for the seat, and presumed powerhouse Paul Tonko is still mulling an entry.
They all want to win. They all want to stay in Congress for at least a few terms. But with standing to lose one or two congressional seats when redistricting rolls around after the 2010 census, they might not be there very long.
If New York loses seats, newer members of Congress may have their districts axed first. With the winner of McNulty’s seat set to be among three freshmen elected this year, the Albany district may well be among those lost.
But as the race heats up, the candidates say they are unfazed by the specter of redistricting. Instead, most used the possibility of having to fight for the existence of the seat to boost their own candidacies.
Tracey Brooks, a former aide to Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) and counsel to the Assembly Judiciary and Codes Committee who has been endorsed by McNulty’s father and sister, said her relationships with state legislators would best position her to keep the seat alive if she wins the race.
Together with Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-Saratoga/Rensselaer), she believes she should be able to keep both the capital region’s congressional seats mostly intact.
“The way I look at it is having myself in the seat with Congresswoman Gillibrand to the north,” she said, “with the two of us who are very energetic, strong members, our seats won’t be the targets, I’m hoping.”
Lester Freeman, the coordinator of the Equal Opportunity Program in Albany, is also seeking the nomination. He also believes he will be able to keep the seat from being eliminated, if elected.
“It doesn’t concern me at all,” said Freeman.
Freeman, who is African-American, said he would work with state legislators to retain the district, especially as the minority populations of Troy and Schenectady, two of the district’s cities, continue to grow. There are currently no minority members of Congress from New York north of the Bronx.
“It is something we need to take a serious look at,” Freeman said. “To dismantle the district at this point, especially when we have all these candidates in the race, I may favor an independent commission to come in and take a look at this.”
Several bills are currently floating through Albany that would take redistricting out of the hands of the legislative taskforce and give it to an independent, non-partisan commission.
The proposals have so far not drawn much attention or support. Without a change to the system, if Democrats control the State Legislature after the 2010 elections, most believe Republican House seats would be first to be lost in redistricting.
But if the Republicans keep the State Senate, Democrats might have to compromise and give up one of their own House seats. Darius Shahinfar, a former Gillibrand aide also seeking McNulty’s seat, said Democrats will protect whichever member has proven the most helpful to the party, both in terms of promoting the agenda and raising funds.
“One’s profile in the delegation and how one represents the district is crucial to whether or not that seat should be lost in redistricting,” he said.
But the prospects of losing the seat to redistricting and what could be done to prevent that from happening are not on every candidate’s mind. Phil Steck, an Albany county legislator seeking the Democratic nomination, said this was not at all a factor for him.
“Why would I think about that?” Steck asked. “It hasn’t impacted our campaign at all.”
Also running for the Democratic nomination are real estate broker Arthur Welser and attorney John Aretakis. Schenectady County legislator Jim Burhmaster (R) and businessman Steven Vasquez are battling for the Republican nomination in this Democrat-heavy district.
But no matter what happens in November or with the 2010 census, all may not be lost for the McNulty district, said Assembly Member Jack McEneny (D-Albany), the State Legislature’s unofficial redistricting expert.
The area’s uniformity and strong urban populations may protect it. Gillibrand’s district, on the other hand, may be in more peril, McEneny said.
“If a district is cohesive and it makes sense and you can describe it in a sentence, like the capital district,” he added, “you have a better chance of staying.”