Rudolph Giuliani was going to be the Republican nominee, and with him at the top of the ticket, New York’s GOP was confident that they could keep control of the State Senate and several contested House seats across the state.
That was then.
Now, though some incumbents were privately banking on Giuliani to be their savior and some candidates made their entry into races contingent on Giuliani’s nomination, Republicans are doing their best to get excited publicly about the candidacy of Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive presidential nominee.
Just like Giuliani, they say, he is a candidate who jibes with New York Republicans. Just like Giuliani, they say, he appeals to non-Republican voters.
And just like Giuliani, they say, he will help in local races.
Maybe.
“They probably would have been a little happier to have Rudy there,” said former Rep. Guy Molinari, speaking of local candidates. “But the point is they have a candidate who’s on a roll right now.”
Molinari, who was McCain’s state chair in 2000, was one of the local leaders of Giuliani’s campaign before the former mayor exited the race. He has since joined the McCain campaign as a state co-chair, and he said he believes New York Republicans have been happy to come over to the senator’s campaign with him.
“The feeling among Republicans who are running this year, they are very excited for the very same reasons that they were happy about Rudy Giuliani,” he said. “The same thing applies to John McCain. He has a tremendous amount of popularity in our state—just about as much as any of our elected officials.”
Though perhaps not as strong or old as Giuliani’s, McCain has connections to New York Republicans, Molinari said, pointing out that McCain not only did well in the 2000 primary, but introduced him to then-fledgling Republican mayoral candidate Michael Bloomberg in late 2000.
More importantly, according to some Republicans, McCain will be appealing in pockets of the state, particularly upstate, where they believe Giuliani would have struggled. And these more conservative-leaning areas, they say, are exactly where the most hotly contested State Senate and House races are likely to be. The New York chapter of the McCain campaign is currently beginning to plan speakers to attend Lincoln Day dinners across the state, as well as other events promoting the Arizona senator which will double as fundraisers for local candidates.
Ed Cox, McCain’s state chair, believes that if Republicans feel McCain can win New York in November, as Cox himself does, that will benefit all Republican candidates in the state
“Clearly, McCain’s relative popularity here as a Republican is going to be very helpful in down-ticket races, and we’re going to be working very closely with them,” Cox said.
Depending on the presidential candidate will almost be a necessity, he added.
“A lot of the energy, not having a statewide office, will come from our presidential candidate,” Cox said, “and we’re going to make sure that energy gets translated into the local races.”
GOP political consultant Gerry O’Brien said that though McCain may well prove a more potent draw for down-ticket races, the candidates will have to take up the task themselves.
“Instead of McCain coming in from the top down, the grassroots and local candidates should be pushing him from the bottom up,” O’Brien said. “It might not make a difference for McCain, but it might be the difference for a lot of State Senate and congressional races.” Though Republican consultant Susan Del Percio agreed that McCain is likely to appeal to New Yorkers of all political stripes, she said the presidential campaign might have a bigger impact on local races in response to frustration among New York Democrats should Sen. Hillary Clinton not be the nominee.
“It’s not so much coat tails of the race as it is voter turnout,” she said, adding a prediction that “with the mess that we’re seeing on the Democratic side, we’re going to see a lot of downstate voters who will not be as likely to turn out.”
But she said she does not expect McCain to make campaigning for local candidates in the state a priority as he pursues the White House.
“When you’re running for president, you can’t so much focus on the party. You’ve got to focus on your race,” she said.
Nonetheless, fundraisers and other events will likely bring the candidate to New York, giving local candidates opportunities to appear with him that those in other states will not have.
“McCain will be spending a lot of time in New York, because that is where the money and the media is,” she said.
John Faso, the 2006 GOP gubernatorial nominee, agreed that McCain would be an attractive Republican candidate to Democrats and independents in New York, as Giuliani might have been. But no matter the presidential candidate, he cautioned Congressional and State Senate candidates against assuming this would in turn put Democrats and independents in their columns as well.
“People are notorious ticket splitters in New York, and every candidate needs to make their own case, based upon local issues,” he said, citing taxes as a major one in which local Republicans could make strong cases. “They can’t just rely on some national breeze to sweep them through.”
Molinari, however, was certain that McCain’s candidacy could make a noticeable difference in some races, provided his campaign backs them up with cash for local operations.
“If they come to Guy Molinari or Ed Cox and say ‘have fun,’ but there’s not any money there, it’s going to be pretty difficult,” he said.
He added that Giuliani could still prove a powerful weapon in the New York campaign battles to come. Without a national race to run, Giuliani would have more time to appear at events for candidates on the home front, which Molinari expected him to do—for some.
“I think he’ll prioritize who he’ll go to see,” Molinari said. “I think he’ll look to see who helped him when he was running.  You break that down, there are people like Peter King, Vito Fossella that were working very hard. I dare say that people like that will have a priority in terms of getting Rudy to appear in their districts.”
Giuliani’s office did not return calls for comment.