When Dede Scozzafava endorsed Democrat Bill Owens for Congress in upstate New York, most of her voters went with her.

The returns from the North Country, where Owens narrowly defeated Conservative Doug Hoffman, provide a few valuable takeaways about the strength of the Republican base, and the Democrats’ ability to win competitive elections in traditionally conservative upstate New York. Scozzafava’s endorsement also proved crucial in swinging GOP votes from 2008 to the Democratic column in 2009.

The maps below provide an illustration.

Owens exceeded expectations in conservative strongholds that were represented by Scozzafava and went heavily for John McHugh in 2008. The largest swing from 2008 to 2009 was in Saint Lawrence, where McHugh beat his Democratic opponent last year by 11,339 votes. This year, Owens bested Hoffman in the county by 3,820 votes, a swing of 15,159. If Hoffman had made up just a fifth of that difference—a feat that would have been much easier had Scozzafava, who represents Saint Lawrence, endorsed him or remained neutral—he would have won the race.

Oswego also swung heavily for Owens, a surprise considering that the county provided the healthiest margin of victory for McHugh in 2008, when he won by close to 15,000 votes. This year, Hoffman narrowly edged out Owens there by 1,748 votes, a swing of more than 13,000 votes. Again, if Hoffman had been able to hold onto just 3,000 of those votes, he would have been the victor.