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Mar 2010

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Not Waiting for Cuomo, Quiet Speculation About Successor Sprouts

Shortened race could give advantage to candidates with money in the bank

Mon, 27 Apr 2009 12:40:00

Questions about Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) these days usually fall into two categories: “Will he?” or “Won’t he?” But there is also the more puzzling question: Who will succeed him if he decides to run for governor in 2010?

With Cuomo’s poll numbers sky high, potential successors (who are not Eliot Spitzer) are already being sized up. Among them are state legislators, upstate lawyers, Long Island officials, former U.S. attorneys, current district attorneys and several perennial candidates.

“There’s nobody who’s obviously a candidate for attorney general,” said veteran Democratic consultant Norman Adler. “They always seem to come out of the woodwork.”

Despite a glut of ambitious legal types in New York State, no one stands out as an obvious shoe-in, even those who have run for attorney general before, Adler added.

State Democrats are looking to sort out whether Cuomo or Gov. David Paterson (D) will be the gubernatorial nominee by the fall. The longer the indecision goes on, however, the less time potential Cuomo successors will have to make their plans, which for now must remain extremely quiet, given the risk of alienating Paterson. That could give an advantage to those who already have name recognition from previous runs or have a stockpile of money in the bank.

Those elected officials who have run briefly before (or have expressed interest in running) are Assembly Member Richard Brodsky (D-Westchester), Assembly Member Michael Gianaris (D-Queens) and State Sen. Jeff Klein (D-Bronx). Coincidentally, two of them have seen other political opportunities dissipate, with Gianaris skipping an expected run for New York City Council and bid for Council speaker before Michael Bloomberg’s extension of term limits, and Klein pulling back from an anticipated challenge to Malcolm Smith for majority leader.

Also very much on the minds of those beginning to have these conversations are State Sen. Eric Schneiderman (D-Manhattan/Bronx) and Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D).

When asked if he would be interested in an open race for attorney general, Klein gave his stock answer.

“I like to focus on one thing at a time,” said Klein, who was considering running for attorney general in 2006 but dropped out after Cuomo entered the race. “So far, Andrew Cuomo tells everybody that he’s not running,” he added.

But Klein did add another name to the mix, that of State Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo, who worked alongside Spitzer in the attorney general’s office before joining his administration in 2006. Klein said he had heard Dinallo’s name mentioned by several Democratic donors.

Another name that has popped up in political conversations around the state is Denise O’Donnell, a Buffalo resident and deputy secretary for public safety under Paterson. O’Donnell ran in the Democratic primary in 2006, but dropped out after falling behind Cuomo in a number of state conventions. O’Donnell would be an interesting candidate, several people said, mainly because she is a woman and is from upstate in a field that seems likely to be stocked high with men from downstate.

Another Buffalo lawyer, Leecia Eve, is also discussed as a possible candidate. Eve dropped her candidacy for lieutenant governor in 2006 after Spitzer chose Paterson as his running mate. She appears to be the only African-American currently being mentioned as a serious contender.

Other names being tossed around are Kathleen Rice, district attorney for Nassau County, Assembly Member Peter Rivera (D-Bronx), a former police officer and the highest-ranking Latino elected official in the state, and Janet DiFiore, district attorney for Westchester County.

Democrats appear content that should the attorney general’s office open up, they would have a sufficient number of qualified candidates to keep that position firmly Democratic.

“The good news is we’ve got a great farm system,” said Assembly Member Sam Hoyt (D-Buffalo). “A lot of quality candidates who could serve well.”

But Republicans, looking to win back some ground, could make a serious push for attorney general next year. Possibilities include Michael Garcia, a former U.S. attorney for New York’s southern tier who made a name for himself weeding out corruption in state government, including in the prostitution case against Spitzer.

Another potential GOP candidate is Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, who is being urged by conservative groups around the state to consider running.

Either of these candidates might be stronger, and therefore presumed to be more likely to run, if they faced an open race rather than one against an extremely popular incumbent.

Whoever runs will need to raise at least $8 million in campaign cash to be considered a serious candidate, said Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf.

“Whoever raises eight million bucks, he’s the one to watch,” Sheinkopf said. “He or she.”

But at this point, figuring out a race so far in the future remains an exercise in wild speculation. For example, even Mark Green, who is currently running for New York City public advocate, has achieved mention as a potential candidate. Unless, of course, he loses his bid this year.

“If [Green] lost, I think running for attorney general would be viewed as quixotic,” said Oliver Koppell (D-Bronx), who served in the office for one year in 1994 and ran twice unsuccessfully for the office afterward. “But if he wins for public advocate, that’d be different.”

Koppell paused, and then added, “I guess that would be unlikely.”

This is the type of guessing game many find themselves in when discussing Cuomo’s potential successor. The attorney general’s office is seen as the “catbird seat” of New York politics. So anyone who could run to replace Cuomo must also be considered a possible candidate for governor somewhere further down the line. After all, the joke goes, AG really stands for “aspiring governor.”

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ABOVE: As Cuomo sizes up a run for governor, names of his potential successors as attorney general are already being tossed around. Illustration by Jerry Miller

   

 

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