While one time presidential frontrunner Mayor Rudolph Giuliani attempts to salvage his campaign in Florida, his Republican rivals are looking to deliver the killer blow by winning New York in an upset. The latest Zogby poll shows Arizona Sen. John McCain ahead of Giuliani among New York Republicans, Quinnipiac has the two GOP candidates dead-even in Giuliani’s home state.

The numbers confirm what people close to the McCain campaign already suspected, that “America’s Mayor” can be beaten in his home state. Ed Cox, McCain’s New York State co-chair, said that Giuliani’s early lead never intimidated McCain’s New York operation.  

“Everyone we talked to in the state said McCain would be competitive, even in the dark days of the summer,” he said, referring to the days when the senator’s fundraising and poll numbers were both at low points.

But McCain rebounded, and in New York, received support from some heavyweight Republicans who are no longer in office, including former Rep. Jack Kemp, former Goldman Sachs executive John C. Whitehead. Then this week, after former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson exited the race, former Sen. Alfonse D’Amato joined the McCain camp.

McCain got a boost from his win in the New Hampshire primary, but he has been competitive in New York for some time and now enjoys a comfortable lead over Giuliani in some parts of the state.

Cox said the movement toward McCain should have been expected.

“He is very much in sync with the base of the Republican Party upstate and on Long Island,” Cox said. “You have a conservative Republican base here, but a sophisticated base. It is a McCain brand of conservative.”

Cox believes that McCain is poised to translate this into a win on Feb. 5. Giuliani is the only candidate that has a traditional, storefront campaign headquarters in New York, but McCain has phone banking operations active throughout the state, including Buffalo, Long Island, New York City, and the North Country.

This might give him an advantage over the other Republican candidates looking to overcome Giuliani at home. For the Republicans, New York’s primary is a winner-take-all delegate state, unlike for the Democrats, who divide delegates proportionally among the candidates. With no points for second place, and 23 other Feb. 5 primaries or caucuses scheduled across the country, the other campaigns are still deciding how to best compete in a primary which airtime and office space make very expensive.

Though former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is well financed, McCain has actually raised more money from New York residents than Romney. In an email written before the latest New York numbers showed Romney running a distant third to McCain and Giuliani, Sarah Pompei, a Romney spokesperson, emphasized the governor’s volunteer support.

“These supporters will continue to organize on the grassroots level, in preparation for Election Day,” she wrote via email.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, polling just behind Romney in New York, is pulling back his efforts in the wake of his defeat in the South Carolina primary. With little organization in New York or funds to build one, Huckabee is focusing on the southern states voting on Super Tuesday. His campaign could not be reached for comment on this story. Rep. Ron Paul, who is polling in last place in New York, has an active and vocal base of supporters throughout the state, but does not have much in the way of a paid organization in New York. However, he has raised some of his money from New Yorkers—including from those in the financial world drawn to his libertarian economic ideas.

The eventual GOP nominee could play a major role in state politics as well, on the top of the ticket as several competitive State Senate seats go up for grabs in November.

Many, including state GOP Chair Joseph Mondello, have argued that Giuliani at the head of the presidential ticket would be the best way to help Republicans retain their narrow majority in the Senate, but Cox argued that, district by district, McCain’s coattails could be just as strong as Giuliani’s.

Guy Molinari, former congressman and Staten Island Borough President, flatly disagreed. Molinari is Giuliani’s state co-chair—having served in the same position for McCain during his 2000 Presidential bid—and says the Senate Republican caucus thinks Giuliani gives them the best chance to maintain control.

“They want Rudy to be the head of the ticket, no question about it,” he said.  “They will tell you that with Rudy on the ticket, they’re in much better shape.”

With the bulk of the New York Republican organization behind him, Giuliani will have the organizational strength to mount major get-out-the-vote efforts all across the state. But for the Giuliani campaign, the tight New York race is a secondary concern. Even Molinari admits Giuliani’s candidacy comes down to the Florida primary Jan.29.

“We need to win Florida to be in play in New York,” Molinari said. “And if we win Florida, it becomes relatively easy in New York.”

Photo by Andrew Schwartz.