A series of possible moves on the Western New York political chessboard could move one State Senate race from safe Republican to political toss-up just as Democrats make a play for control of the Senate.

Multiple sources in Western New York politics have confirmed that there is a strong possibility that Cong. Tom Reynolds (R–Erie) will not run for a sixth term next year, opening up a race for the seat by State Sen. George Maziarz (R–Niagara), thus placing Maziarz’ seat up for grabs.

Rumors of a potential Reynolds departure and a Maziarz play for a congressional seat have been flying around political circles in Buffalo and Niagara Falls for months, though Reynolds spokesman L.D. Platt denies the rumors and says the congressman will run again.

Maziarz has long been considered a likely Reynolds successor, as much of his current district overlaps with the congressional district. A longtime senator and former Niagara County Clerk, Maziarz is said to have long harbored congressional ambitions and could be looking for an exit strategy with a Democratic takeover of the Senate looking increasingly possible. Maziarz denies talk of both, noting that he does not believe either a congressional vacancy or party change in the Senate will occur.

“Tom Reynolds is raising money and I think he is running,” he said. “I won’t speculate on a congressional race. I would have to talk to my wife. I love being in the Senate.”

If Maziarz ends up running for Congress next year, his usually safe Republican seat is considered ripe for a Democratic pick up next year. Encompassing all of Niagara County outside of Niagara Falls, all of Orleans County and western Monroe County, including part of Rochester, the Senate district usually elects Maziarz in landslides against token opposition.

But Democrats have been making gains across upstate.

Sean Kelly, who was until recently chairman of the Political Science Department at Niagara University and a longtime observer of the Niagara County political scene, said he can easily see a scenario where a Democrat can pick up the seat. He said that while parts of the district will remain reliably Republican, the district’s urban and suburban areas could elect a moderate or conservative Democrat.
Observers cite Niagara County Republican Chairman Henry Wojtaszek, a close Maziarz ally, as the frontrunner to succeed the senator. Wojtaszek, who lost to Cong. Louise Slaughter (D–Monroe) in 2002, said that he will not engage in speculation about a Senate race, noting he enjoys his job as a partner with the politically connected law firm of Harris Beach and is focused on raising his three young children.

“Tom Reynolds will be in that seat as long he wants to be,” Wojtaszek said, noting this would preclude a potential Senate vacancy.
Regardless of Wojtaszek’s denials, Kelly and others view the party chairman, who is also a state GOP vice chairman and former elected North Tonawanda city attorney, as a strong candidate for the party’s nomination and likely to make the race. In his early 40s, Wojtaszek could hold the Senate seat for a generation.

Outside of Wojtaszek, the other strong Republican contender is Tim Demler, the ambitious Wheatfield Town Supervisor. Demler unsuccessfully sought an Assembly seat in 2002 and last year ran for the GOP lieutenant governor nomination before pulling out in favor of Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef. Demler said that if the Senate seat were to open, there is between a 70 to 80-percent chance he would be a candidate.

“There is a lot of good we can do,” Demler said of a potential Senate bid.

After Wojtaszek and Demler, longer-shot Republican Senate candidates include Lockport Mayor Michael Tucker, Niagara County Legislature Chairman Bill Ross of Wheatfield and Niagara County Legislator Clyde Burmaster of Ransomville.

Assembly Member Francine Delmonte of Lewiston, Lewiston Town Supervisor Fred Newlin and Niagara County Legislator Kyle Andrews of Wilson are viewed as the Democratic frontrunners for the Senate seat. North Tonawanda Mayor Larry Soos is viewed as a long shot candidate, even though Soos said he is not interested in being a senator.

Delmonte, a four-term member closely aligned with Speaker Sheldon Silver (D–Manhattan), said she has not been approached about a Senate campaign and would not engage in speculation on who’s in and who’s out. She faced competitive primary and general election challenges last year and has been a target of Wojtaszek’s in her three re-election battles, including her 2002 race against Demler.

“I listen when I hear those rumors, but until Congressman Reynolds makes that announcement, I won’t speculate,” she said.
If Delmonte were to seek the Senate seat, her Assembly seat would likely remain Democratic. Newlin and Andrews would be on lists of potential Assembly candidates, along with a host of Democrats from Niagara Falls, which is in the Assembly district.
Newlin, who has been a top target for Niagara County Republicans in his town supervisor races since he upset a Republican incumbent in 2003, said he would seriously consider a Senate race if the seat were to open up. Andrews said he did not want to comment on the Senate race but noted he was humbled to be considered a possible candidate.

Kelly said Newlin and Andrews would be strong candidates for the seat based on their political views and the fact they hail from suburban and rural areas. He noted that Delmonte’s strength lies from her current position in the Assembly and high name recognition in Niagara County. Kelly declined to guess which candidate would end up the ultimate nominee.

Democrats are expected to mount a major effort for the seat, especially if Wojtaszek is the Republican nominee. Wojtaszek has rubbed many county Democrats the wrong way with his recruitment of registered Democrats to caucus with Republicans in the county legislature, which has given the Republicans the majority in a nominally Democratic Legislature. In addition, County Democratic Chairman Daniel Rivera has long had an adversarial relationship with both Wojtaszek and Maziarz that began in their shared hometown of North Tonawanda.

Final decisions from most are not expected until the start of petitioning season in May.     

johncelock@aol.com
Direct letters to the editor to editor@nycapitolnews.com.

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Democrats Gathering to Face Reynolds—If He Does Seek Re-election
Speculation that Rep. Thomas Reynolds (R–Erie) may be looking to opt out of re-election next year has the potential to dramatically alter the congressional race, which is viewed as a top Democratic target for next year.

Reynolds is rumored to be considering retirement after five terms, following two close re-election battles in recent years, both from Democratic millionaire Jack Davis. Davis, who pumped millions of his own money into both races, came within 10 points of Reynolds in the heavily Republican district in 2004 and got 48 percent of the vote last year. Reynolds had trailed Davis in the closing weeks of last year’s campaign after the congressman was implicated in the Mark Foley scandal and was widely panned for holding a press conference on the incident while surrounded by supporters holding small children.

Political observers said Reynolds eked out a come-from-behind victory last year following the surprise October blizzard, after which he dominated the airwaves and delivered federal aid from the Bush administration. In addition, Davis’ weak retail political skills were said to have cost the industrialist a seat in Congress.

Reynolds spokesman L.D. Platt downplayed the Davis factor saying the 2004 race was not close and last year’s race was based on factors outside the district. He said the congressman is confident about winning the district.

“When you look at 2004, we won with 55 percent. That’s not close,” Platt said, adding, “last time you had a statewide race where the Republican candidates were weak.”

Platt pointed to Reynolds’ frequent trips home to his district and attention to delivering money for local projects. During last year’s campaign, Reynolds frequently cited his delivery of several hundred million federal dollars to his district. As for a 2008 campaign, Platt noted that Reynolds, legendary for his fundraising ability, has $720,000 on hand for a race.

If Reynolds retires, State Sen. George Maziarz (R–Niagara County) is considered the frontrunner to succeed Reynolds. A Maziarz candidacy would change the dynamics of the race. Davis is weighing a third bid and two other Democrats, Iraq War veteran Jon Powers and attorney Alice Kryzan, have announced bids. While Erie County Democratic Chairman Len Lenihan does not expect to endorse a candidate until the spring, Powers is gaining ground in the contest.

Powers’ candidacy is exciting Democrats statewide and nationally, as he is young, a veteran and formed a charity aimed at helping Iraqi children recover from the war. On Oct. 29, Powers held a Manhattan fundraiser headlined by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) and Rep. Charles Rangel (D–Manhattan). The 30-year-old social studies teacher has raised over $100,000 for the congressional campaign, which he touts as comprising more small-dollar contributions than Reynolds. Republicans have criticized Powers for raising much of his war chest outside of New York State.